Lecturer · CODE Berlin Head of Innovation · S-Com Advisor to founders
Christoph
Brauer
What is new matters less
than what it will have changed.
Lecturer · CODE Berlin Head of Innovation · S-Com Advisor to founders
What is new matters less
than what it will have changed.
01 · The thesis
New technology arrives in months. What it does to armies, companies, cities and the way we live together takes decades to unfold. That slower story is the one I follow.
02 · About
03 · The book Coming 2027
Drones, AI and the Lessons of Ukraine
What the war in Ukraine has already taught about drones, artificial intelligence and the institutions that have to absorb them. Twenty-five lessons from recent wars, each tested against the record, written for founders first and young officers second.
04 · Three lines
05 · Recent writing · Shaping war
The post-2022 consensus said decapitation fails. Twelve days in June 2025 split it instead: killing a command layer reliably silences the system beneath it — and reliably fails to break the society above it. February 2026 ran the test again, to the very top of the state, with the same result.
No Maverick Wins Military folklore says innovation comes from lone rebels the institution punishes. The scholar who counted twenty-one cases found the opposite: new ways of war take hold when respected insiders open promotion pathways for the new specialty. The test of any defence innovation hub is not its demo day — it is who makes general. 
The Sky Is Alive — But Not Everywhere The transparent battlefield is real — but it is a gradient with workable edges, not a law of nature. Four operations since 2022 beat it, and the seven-month autopsy of Kursk shows what manufactured blindness buys — and what it cannot. 
The Douhet Trap In 1924 the Royal Air Force wrote down that the lessons of military history did not apply to the bomber. The bill arrived in 1941. Three questions reveal which of today's drone and AI claims are built the same way. 
What Must Be True About the Next War — and What Nobody Can Know Defence forecasting fails so reliably that failure itself is the field's best-documented finding. But seven statements about the next decade can be deduced rather than predicted — and each one states what would prove it wrong. 06 · The method
I don't predict.
I trace.
Lines of change, followed over years and revisited: the same questions, asked again when the technology has moved on.
A letter every two weeks on what fast technology is doing, slowly, to the world.